The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that the Global Food Price Index declined for the third consecutive month , reflecting easing pressure in global commodity markets. For investors and policymakers, this signals a potential turning point in inflation, supply-chain stability, and emerging market consumption . The decline comes after two years of heightened volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, climate disruptions, and logistics bottlenecks. 1) What’s Driving the Global Food Price Decline? ✔ 1) Stabilizing grain supply Wheat, corn, and soybean harvests improved in the U.S., Brazil, and parts of Asia, easing inventory pressures. ✔ 2) Shipping routes normalizing Freight rates have fallen from 2022 highs, with fewer disruptions in major corridors like the Black Sea and Panama Canal. ✔ 3) Energy cost moderation Lower oil prices reduced transportation and fertilizer costs, feeding directly into agricultural production efficiency. ✔ 4) Stronger local...
공유 링크 만들기
Facebook
X
Pinterest
이메일
기타 앱
Why the November FOMC Signals a Potential Fed Pivot in Early 2025
공유 링크 만들기
Facebook
X
Pinterest
이메일
기타 앱
-
Executive Summary
The November FOMC meeting revealed the clearest hints yet of a potential Fed pivot in early 2025. With inflation cooling, labor-market pressure easing, and forward guidance subtly shifting, global markets are pricing in an accelerated rate-cut timeline. This shift could reshape U.S. liquidity, global capital flows, and emerging-market risk premiums.
1. Key Insights
The Fed’s tone shifted from “higher for longer” → “data-dependent easing.”
Core PCE inflation is now moving firmly toward the 2% target.
Bond markets are pricing 2–3 cuts in 2025, earlier than previously expected.
Financial conditions have tightened enough to substitute for further hikes.
Global EM currencies may stabilize as U.S. rate-cut expectations strengthen.
2. What Changed After the November FOMC?
2.1 A Softer Tone from Powell
For the first time in months, Powell emphasized that “the risks of doing too much and too little are becoming more balanced.”
This is the classic early language of a pivot cycle.
2.2 Cooling Inflation = Policy Space
Core PCE falling toward 2.4% gives the Fed freedom to pause without fear of renewed inflation spikes.
2.3 Labor Market No Longer Overheating
Job openings have declined for seven consecutive months.
Wage growth is moderating.
The Fed interprets this as reduced overheating risk, which historically precedes rate cuts.
2.4 Financial Conditions Are Tight Enough
Long-term Treasury yields rose sharply this year,
creating a “passive tightening effect”—meaning the Fed doesn’t need to raise rates further.
3. Will the Fed Pivot in Early 2025?
Probability Assessment
Scenario
Probability
Description
Early Pivot (Q1–Q2 2025)
55%
Inflation cooling + economic slowdown
Late Pivot (Q3 2025)
30%
Sticky services inflation delays cuts
No Pivot / Higher-for-Longer
15%
Re-acceleration shock in inflation
4. Market Impact to Watch
4.1 U.S. Equities
Rate-cut expectations typically boost mega-cap tech and interest-sensitive growth sectors.
4.2 U.S. Dollar (USD)
A softer Fed tends to push USD lower → beneficial for EM currencies.
4.3 Bonds
Long-duration Treasuries benefit most during pivot cycles.
(Yield compression → price 상승)
4.4 Global Liquidity Flows
Fed easing historically leads to stronger EM capital inflows (Korea, Vietnam, India 등).
5. Recommended Actions
Track Core PCE monthly readings and labor-market slack indicators.
Watch the U.S. 10-year yield: falling below 4.0% = pivot confirmation signal.
Monitor Fed Funds futures via CME FedWatch for real-time probability shifts.
A potential Fed pivot in 2025 is no longer speculation—it is becoming a central narrative across global markets.
Understanding the timing and impact of this policy shift will be critical for navigating AI stocks, EM equities, and global liquidity cycles.
The proposed U.S.–Korea Strategic Investment Corporation (SKIC) is emerging as one of the most significant policy concepts of 2025. More than a bilateral investment platform, SKIC signals a shift toward joint industrial planning, shared capital deployment, and coordinated supply-chain strategy between the two countries. If implemented, SKIC could redefine how both nations allocate resources across critical sectors like semiconductors, EVs, batteries, defense tech, and AI infrastructure. 🔍 1. SKIC as a New Industrial Policy Framework Unlike traditional cross-border funds, SKIC aligns public policy goals with private-sector capital , creating a system in which: Washington’s reshoring agenda meets Seoul’s scaling agenda Joint investment can support fabrication, research, and deployment Capital allocation becomes a policy tool, not just a market function This makes SKIC far more strategic than a typical bilateral finance vehicle. 🔋 2. Supply Chain Security Is th...
The AI world is entering a new phase. Training chips — especially TPU-class accelerators — will determine which countries and companies lead the next wave of AI innovation. 1. Why TPU Demand Is Surging in 2025 AI models are doubling in size every few months. GPU-based training has become too expensive, too slow, and too power-hungry. Meanwhile: TPUs deliver higher FLOPS per watt, lower cost per training run, and more stable scaling across large clusters. This shift explains why major cloud regions (U.S., UAE, Korea, India) are adopting TPU-like accelerators in sovereign AI strategies. 2. TPU vs GPU — The Real Difference Category GPU TPU Flexibility Excellent Medium Training Throughput Good Superior Cost Efficiency Moderate High Best Use Case Inference + general compute Large-scale training The more parameters a model has, the more likely TPUs outperform GPUs in both speed and cost. 3. Who Will Dominate TPU Infrastructure in 2025? 🇺🇸 United States Still leads TPU architecture, com...
댓글
댓글 쓰기